About PredictionPitch

PredictionPitch started as a curiosity project — can we describe football outcomes more honestly using probabilities rather than confidence? It became a system used daily, and now it is a public platform: probabilities first, results tracked, free for everyone.

What PredictionPitch Is

A probability platform. A transparent tracker. A long-term experiment in modeling football uncertainty. It is not a promise of profit, a tipster service, or a place where losses disappear.

How It's Built

An ensemble of classical statistics and modern machine learning: ELO-style ratings, Poisson and Dixon-Coles goal modeling, and ML calibration via XGBoost. The aim is better probability estimates — and to measure how well they hold up over time.

Why It's Free

Funded through licensed bookmaker partnerships. No paywalls, no subscriptions, no hidden tiers. Every prediction and result is publicly accessible.

Transparency Policy

We publish results — win or lose. We show probabilities, not promises. We track performance over time, not cherry-picked streaks.

A Personal Note

Based in Denmark. Independent project. No venture funding, no marketing department. Just a fascination with football, probability, and what models get right and wrong.