An independent site with one rule: publish the number, then grade it.

Nothing to pay, no account to make, and no claim about ourselves that the record page cannot settle.

What this is

We publish a probability for every football match we cover — the match result, over or under 2.5 goals, both teams to score — and put the bookmakers' price next to it with the margin taken out. Then we grade ourselves: every night, every number is scored against the closing line, and the result goes on the record page whether it flatters us or not.

What it is not

This is not a selection service. We do not tell anyone what to back, and nothing here is advice, financial or otherwise. Where our number is four points or more above the market's on an outcome we hold a price for, we mark it in purple and say why — a disagreement, not a recommendation.

Who's behind it

I'm Silas. I live in Denmark, I work in product management, and I have been a football nerd for as long as I can remember — a Newcastle United fan since the nineties. I love statistics, and football is where they are most fun. I wanted to build this site for ten years, and finally did; the record page came before the front page, and it still sets what the rest of the site is allowed to claim.

How it's funded

I pay for everything myself. The site stays free because of our partners: when you open an account with a bookmaker through a link here, we may earn a commission, at no cost to you. That is the only way the site makes money, and it never changes a number — every figure is published before kick-off and graded afterwards either way. If you were going to sign up with one of them anyway, doing it through our links is the best way to support the site. 18+, and please gamble responsibly.

Every partner link is marked "ad", carries the regulated line, and goes to a bookmaker licensed where you are.