PredictionPitch publishes probability-based football forecasts for upcoming fixtures, and tracks performance transparently. No paywalls. No "locks." No promises.
Match probabilities across three markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS). Best available odds (aggregated) for context. Edge detection when model probability meaningfully differs from market implied probability. Tracked results across time—wins and losses included.
We ingest fixtures, historical match data, and odds from professional providers. We only publish when sufficient historical signal exists.
Ensemble approach: ELO-style ratings, Poisson/Dixon-Coles goal modeling, ML calibration. Output is probabilities, not picks.
Odds are converted to implied probabilities for apples-to-apples comparison.
When model probability meaningfully exceeds market implied probability, we may flag a Value Bet. Most matches won't show value—markets are often efficient.
We track results and publish performance metrics. If something works, it should hold up over time. If not, it should be visible.
Football is noisy and outcomes are uncertain. Probabilities are not guarantees. A 70% probability still loses 30% of the time. Bet responsibly.