Value betting is not about "picking winners." It's about finding prices where the market probability appears lower than the true probability.
Implied probability = 1 / odds. Example: Odds 2.50 → implied probability 40%.
If the model estimates 48% and the market implies 40%, the model sees an edge.
Edge = Model probability − Implied probability. Not a guarantee. Can lose, often will in the short run.
Markets are competitive and efficient. If you see value on everything, something is wrong.
Value betting only makes sense with large samples, transparent tracking, and consistent measurement. That's why PredictionPitch publishes performance openly.