The oldest market in football, and the one bookmakers price most carefully. 1 is a home win, X a draw, 2 an away win — the notation comes from the old European coupons, where the home side was printed first.
1X2 settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. In a cup tie that goes to extra time or penalties, the market is settled on the score at the end of regular time, so a tie level after 90 minutes settles as a draw whatever happens afterwards.
Draws land in roughly a quarter to a third of matches across the major European leagues, and they are the hardest outcome to model: the probability sits in a narrow band whatever the matchup, and a draw can come from a goalless stalemate or a 3-3. Home advantage is the other long-run pattern — historically around 46% home wins across the top leagues — but it varies by competition and by club, and it has been slowly declining.
Divide one by the decimal price. Odds of 1.80, 3.40 and 4.50 imply 55.6%, 29.4% and 22.2%, which sum to 107.2%; the extra 7.2 points are the bookmaker's margin. Taking that margin out is what lets you compare a probability with a probability, which is how our number and the market's sit side by side on every match page. A probability is not a tip. 18+, and please gamble responsibly.