2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:30 · 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Likeliest: 1. FC Heidenheim win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Heidenheim48%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
1. FC Kaiserslautern23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)5-3
- Aug 23 · at SSV Jeddeloh (A)2-5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at FC St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Heidenheim | 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.