Every match. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', graded in public. Purple is where we differ.
Atlético Tucumán v Argentinos Juniors
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors win · 38% · Likely scores: 0–0 15% · 1–1 15% · 0–1 12%
00:15
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 31 percent
Our probability, draw: 35 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Independiente Rivadavia v Banfield
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia win · 64% · Likely scores: 2–0 13% · 1–0 13% · 1–1 11%
00:15
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Atlético Bucaramanga v Atlético Nacional
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 40% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 0–0 9%
01:15
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 59% · Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 0–1 15% · 0–0 11%
20:30
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 59 percent
Market probability, away win: 57 percent
—
Kataller Toyama v Vegalta Sendai
Likeliest: Kataller Toyama win · 34% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 0–0 10% · 1–2 10%
04:55
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 34 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Oita Trinita v Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: Oita Trinita win · 44% · Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 11%
05:00spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 25 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
—
Yokohama FC v Blaublitz Akita
Likeliest: Yokohama FC win · 55% · Likely scores: 1–0 13% · 2–1 12% · 1–1 11%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Tochigi City FC
Likeliest: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · 50% · Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 25 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
—
Ventforet Kofu v Albirex Niigata
Likeliest: Albirex Niigata win · 42% · Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 10%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
RB Omiya Ardija v Iwaki FC
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 51% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 2–0 9% · 1–0 7%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 51 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Shonan Bellmare v Sagan Tosu
Likeliest: Sagan Tosu win · 51% · Likely scores: 0–1 13% · 1–2 13% · 1–1 13%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 20 percent
Market probability, home win: 24 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 51 percent
Market probability, away win: 49 percent
—
Fujieda MYFC v Jubilo Iwata
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 40% · Likely scores: 1–1 16% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 11%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Montedio Yamagata v Tokushima Vortis
Likeliest: Tokushima Vortis win · 34% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 12% · 0–1 10%
05:00
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 34 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
FC Imabari v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Likeliest: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo win · 41% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 8%
05:50
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: 40 percent
—
Newcastle Jets v Shanghai Port
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 44% · Likely scores: 1–2 11% · 1–1 9% · 2–2 8%
07:45
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Vissel Kobe v Ratchaburi
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 81% · Likely scores: 2–1 15% · 2–0 11% · 1–0 11%
10:00
Our probability, home win: 81 percent
Market probability, home win: 77 percent
Our probability, draw: 13 percent
Market probability, draw: 14 percent
Our probability, away win: 6 percent
Market probability, away win: 8 percent
—
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Johor Darul Ta'zim
Likeliest: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · 39% · Likely scores: 2–1 14% · 1–1 11% · 1–0 11%
10:00
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Kashiwa Reysol v Daejeon Hana Citizen
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 63% · Likely scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 11% · 1–1 10%
10:00
Our probability, home win: 63 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Port FC v Beijing Guoan
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 59% · Likely scores: 1–2 14% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
12:15
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 59 percent
Market probability, away win: 56 percent
—
Công An Hà Nội v Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Kyoto Sanga FC win · 49% · Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 0–1 12% · 1–1 12%
12:15
Our probability, home win: 25 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 49 percent
Market probability, away win: 47 percent
—
Esteghlal FC v Al Shamal SC
Likeliest: Al Shamal SC win · 37% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–1 11% · 1–2 11%
16:00
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Al-Hilal v Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Likeliest: Al-Hilal win · 67% · Likely scores: 2–1 13% · 3–0 10% · 1–0 9%
18:15
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 21 percent
Market probability, home win: 24 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 53 percent
Market probability, away win: 51 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Galatasaray win · 43% · Likely scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 8% · 2–1 7%
17:45
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Manchester United v Roma
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 40% · Likely scores: 1–1 11% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Feyenoord v Inter Milan
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 60% · Likely scores: 1–2 14% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
20:00spot · away
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 60 percent
Market probability, away win: 56 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
LASK v ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Likeliest: LASK win · 69% · Likely scores: 2–1 12% · 2–0 9% · 3–1 8%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 69 percent
Market probability, home win: 66 percent
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 16 percent
Market probability, home win: 20 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 63 percent
Market probability, away win: 59 percent
—
Atletico Madrid v FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 50% · Likely scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 8% · 2–2 7%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 26 percent
Market probability, home win: 29 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 50 percent
Market probability, away win: 48 percent
—
Barcelona v Aston Villa
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 81% · Likely scores: 2–1 11% · 3–1 10% · 2–0 8%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 81 percent
Market probability, home win: 77 percent
Our probability, draw: 11 percent
Market probability, draw: 13 percent
Our probability, away win: 8 percent
Market probability, away win: 9 percent
—
IK Sirius v Halmstads BK
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 77% · Likely scores: 2–0 12% · 1–0 8% · 3–0 8%
18:00spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 77 percent
Market probability, home win: 73 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 16 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 10 percent
—
Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve win · 43% · Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–1 10% · 0–0 9%
18:00
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 29 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 43 percent
Market probability, away win: 42 percent
—
Lanús Reserve v Atletico Rafaela Reserve
Likeliest: Lanús Reserve win · 66% · Likely scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 11%
18:00
Our probability, home win: 66 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Argentinos Juniors Reserve v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors Reserve win · 36% · Likely scores: 0–0 18% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 12%
18:00
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 35 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Sarmiento Reserve v Banfield Reserve
Likeliest: Sarmiento Reserve win · 43% · Likely scores: 0–0 14% · 1–1 12% · 0–1 11%
18:00
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Newell's Old Boys Reserve v CA Independiente Reserve
Likeliest: Newell's Old Boys Reserve win · 37% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10%
18:00
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
River Plate Reserve v Tigre Reserve
Likeliest: River Plate Reserve win · 69% · Likely scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 10% · 1–1 10%
22:00
Our probability, home win: 69 percent
Market probability, home win: 66 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 12 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Rochdale v Doncaster Rovers
Likeliest: Doncaster Rovers win · 52% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10%
19:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 52 percent
Market probability, away win: 49 percent
—
Portsmouth v Swansea City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 36% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 10% · 0–0 9%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 40% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Watford v Lincoln City
Likeliest: Watford win · 41% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 2–1 11% · 1–0 10%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 41 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Queens Park Rangers v Burnley
Likeliest: Queens Park Rangers win · 39% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Preston North End v Sheffield United
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 40% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Derby County v Norwich City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 48% · Likely scores: 1–2 12% · 1–1 12% · 0–1 9%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 26 percent
Market probability, home win: 29 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 48 percent
Market probability, away win: 46 percent
—
Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City
Likeliest: Blackburn Rovers win · 37% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 0–0 10% · 1–2 9%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
West Bromwich Albion v Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 38% · Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 9%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 35 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Birmingham City v Millwall
Likeliest: Birmingham City win · 47% · Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 9%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 45% · Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 12% · 0–1 10%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 45 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Huddersfield Town v Luton Town
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 46% · Likely scores: 2–1 11% · 1–1 10% · 1–2 8%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 46 percent
Market probability, home win: 46 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic
Likeliest: Oldham Athletic win · 38% · Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 0–0 11% · 0–1 10%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Farnborough v Ebbsfleet United
Likeliest: Ebbsfleet United win · 62% · Likely scores: 1–2 11% · 1–1 10% · 0–2 9%
19:45
Our probability, home win: 16 percent
Market probability, home win: 19 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 59 percent
—
Comerciantes Unidos v Asociación Deportiva Tarma
Likeliest: Comerciantes Unidos win · 53% · Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 2–0 11% · 1–0 10%
20:00
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Chapecoense v Mirassol
Likeliest: Mirassol win · 45% · Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 11% · 0–1 9%
22:30
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 45 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Deportivo Táchira v Academia Puerto Cabello
Likeliest: Deportivo Táchira win · 44% · Likely scores: 1–1 15% · 1–0 10% · 0–0 9%
23:30
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market — bookmakers' prices with the margin removed. Purple is a gap of 4 points or more, and a purple edge marks a spot: an outcome we are longer on than the market, in any of the markets we publish. The price is the best one in our data for that outcome; it links to a partner in your country. Switch to Goals for over/under 2.5 and both teams to score.
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