The bookmakers have an opinion.
So do we.
Our chances for every match, side by side with the bookmakers' — margin taken out. When we disagree, we flag it in purple. Then we grade ourselves on it, in public, every night.
Where we differ today
All 53 matches today →The fixtures where our number is furthest from the market. Purple is us; the small figure is the market with its margin removed.
Today
Big number is ours, small is the market with the margin removed.
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How it works
Each team's attack and defence, fitted on every match they've played, weighted towards recent form.
Bookmakers' prices with their margin stripped out, so you're comparing two probabilities, not a number against a price.
Every number is scored against where the line closed. The record page shows all of it, including the bad weeks.
Leagues
Every number we published, graded.
Calibration, the closing-line gap per market, and the full ledger of the matches where we disagreed. Updated every night. See the record →
When we said 42%, it happened 45% of the time.
Every home-win probability we published this week, 670 of them, against how often the home side actually won. We called the result right 52.9% of the time; the bookmakers' closing price, 55.1%.
The record on Sunday: how last week's numbers did against the closing line. The spots on Tuesday and Friday: every spot in the next three days. At most three emails a week.