Every match. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', graded in public. Purple is where we differ.
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 35 percent
Market probability, draw: 33 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Wadi Degla v National Bank of Egypt
Likeliest: National Bank of Egypt win · 39% · Likely score: 0–1
15:00
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 27 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 52 percent
Market probability, away win: 49 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 69 percent
Market probability, home win: 66 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Sabah FK v Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 75% · Likely score: 1–2
16:45spot · away
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 75 percent
Market probability, away win: 71 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 88 percent
Market probability, home win: 85 percent
Our probability, draw: 8 percent
Market probability, draw: 10 percent
Our probability, away win: 4 percent
Market probability, away win: 5 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 67 percent
Market probability, home win: 65 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 45 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 92 percent
Market probability, home win: 90 percent
Our probability, draw: 6 percent
Market probability, draw: 7 percent
Our probability, away win: 2 percent
Market probability, away win: 3 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 62 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Newell's Old Boys Reserve v Platense Reserve
Likeliest: Newell's Old Boys Reserve win · 46% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 46 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Defensa y Justicia Reserve v Atletico Rafaela Reserve
Likeliest: Defensa y Justicia Reserve win · 58% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve v CA Independiente Reserve
Likeliest: CA Independiente Reserve win · 49% · Likely score: 0–1
18:00
Our probability, home win: 22 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 49 percent
Market probability, away win: 47 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Argentinos Juniors Reserve v Rosario Central Reserve
Likeliest: Rosario Central Reserve win · 39% · Likely score: 0–1
18:00
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Wolverhampton v Portsmouth
Likeliest: Wolverhampton win · 63% · Likely score: 1–0
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 63 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Dunfermline Athletic v Partick Thistle
Likeliest: Partick Thistle win · 36% · Likely score: 0–1
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 55 percent
Market probability, away win: 51 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 25 percent
Market probability, home win: 27 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 52 percent
Market probability, away win: 49 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Huddersfield Town v Peterborough United
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 64% · Likely score: 2–0
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 47 percent
Market probability, away win: 45 percent
—
Cambridge United v Wycombe Wanderers
Likeliest: Cambridge United win · 42% · Likely score: 1–0
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 37% · Likely score: 0–1
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Burton Albion v Bradford City
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 46% · Likely score: 0–1
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 19 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: 53 percent
—
Oxford United v Wigan Athletic
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 50% · Likely score: 1–0
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
York City v Accrington Stanley
Likeliest: York City win · 65% · Likely score: 2–0
18:45spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: 63 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 25 percent
Market probability, home win: 29 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 51 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Internacional de Bogotá v Fortaleza CEIF
Likeliest: Internacional de Bogotá win · 50% · Likely score: 1–0
23:00
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 50 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 58 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market — bookmakers' prices with the margin removed. Purple is a gap of 4 points or more, and a purple edge marks a spot: an outcome we are longer on than the market, in any of the markets we publish. The price is the best one in our data for that outcome; it links to a partner in your country. Switch to Goals for over/under 2.5 and both teams to score.
Prices link to licensed bookmakers · 18+ · T&Cs apply · Gamble responsibly · We earn a commission if you sign up.