2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · 1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus
Likeliest: 1. FC Heidenheim win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Heidenheim59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Energie Cottbus21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-3
- Oct 9 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Holstein Kiel (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-0
Energie Cottbus
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-4
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Heidenheim | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.