2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 13 · 11:30 · 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: 1. FC Heidenheim win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Heidenheim44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 6 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v SG Dynamo Dresden (H)5-3
- Aug 23 · at SSV Jeddeloh (A)2-5
- Aug 15 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-4
- Aug 8 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)4-3
Holstein Kiel
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · at TSV 1860 München (A)2-0
- Aug 14 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Heidenheim | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.