2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: 1. FC Kaiserslautern win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Kaiserslautern38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184835%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 9 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at FC St. Pauli (A)2-1
VfL Bochum 1848
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Aug 28 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.