Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04
Likeliest: 1. FC Köln win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Köln46%47%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Schalke 0429%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Köln
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Sep 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-4
FC Schalke 04
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v 1. FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)0-0
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.