2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:00 · 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96
Likeliest: Hannover 96 win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Magdeburg34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Hannover 9641%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 18 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Holstein Kiel (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Bahlinger SC (A)4-0
Hannover 96
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at 1. FC Nürnberg (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Karlsruher SC (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · at SV Hemelingen (A)9-1
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Magdeburg | Hannover 96 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.