2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Aug 30 · 11:30 · 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: 1. FC Magdeburg win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 43%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Magdeburg62%43%+19
OursMarket
Draw18%25%−7
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel20%31%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 61% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 69% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 57% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 75% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 58% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 23 · at Bahlinger SC (A)4-0
- Aug 15 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-0
- Aug 8 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)1-6
- May 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Holstein Kiel (A)3-1
Holstein Kiel
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at TSV 1860 München (A)2-0
- Aug 14 · v FC St. Pauli (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)2-2
- May 17 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Magdeburg (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Magdeburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.