2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC
Likeliest: 1. FC Magdeburg win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Magdeburg56%54%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Karlsruher SC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Hannover 96 (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-2
Karlsruher SC
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)4-0
- Oct 11 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Energie Cottbus (H)0-3
- Sep 4 · at Hannover 96 (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Magdeburg | Karlsruher SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.