2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 18:30 · 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Likeliest: 1. FC Nürnberg win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Nürnberg51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
1. FC Kaiserslautern25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · at Energie Cottbus (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)4-4
- Sep 19 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Hannover 96 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.