2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:30 · 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: VfL Wolfsburg win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Nürnberg36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Hannover 96 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Holstein Kiel (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)4-1
- Aug 22 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)1-1
VfL Wolfsburg
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Energie Cottbus (H)4-4
- Aug 29 · at Karlsruher SC (A)5-2
- Aug 24 · at VSG Altglienicke (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Nürnberg | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.