Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:00 · 1. FC Slovácko vs Baník Ostrava
Likeliest: 1. FC Slovácko win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Slovácko36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Baník Ostrava34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Slovácko
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 16 · at FK Neratovice-Byškovice (A)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Pardubice (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)1-2
Baník Ostrava
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v FK Pardubice (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v SK Sigma Olomouc (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · v SK Líšeň (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Slovácko | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.