Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:00 · 1. FC Slovácko vs FC Zbrojovka Brno
Likeliest: 1. FC Slovácko win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Slovácko37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
FC Zbrojovka Brno33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Slovácko
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Baník Ostrava (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at FK Neratovice-Byškovice (A)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v FK Pardubice (H)0-0
FC Zbrojovka Brno
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v FK Jablonec (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Mladá Boleslav (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Králův Dvůr (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v SK Líšeň (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Slovácko | FC Zbrojovka Brno |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.