Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Union Berlin16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund61%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Union Berlin
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v SV 07 Elversberg (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-7
- Sep 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
- Sep 8 · v Villarreal (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.