Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 29 · 13:30 · 1. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: 1. FC Union Berlin win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 38%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Union Berlin45%38%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt31%36%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 62% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 52% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Union Berlin
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 23 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)4-2
- May 16 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- May 10 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- May 2 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Apr 24 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 21 · at SC St Tönis 11/20 (A)11-0
- May 16 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- May 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- May 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.