Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:30 · 1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
Likeliest: 1. FC Union Berlin win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Union Berlin41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Schalke 0432%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Union Berlin
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)4-2
- May 16 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- May 10 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
FC Schalke 04
DrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-3
- Aug 24 · at Hallescher FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.