Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · 1. FC Union Berlin vs SV 07 Elversberg
Likeliest: 1. FC Union Berlin win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FC Union Berlin41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
SV 07 Elversberg33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FC Union Berlin
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-7
- Sep 11 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)4-2
SV 07 Elversberg
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Aug 29 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at MSV Duisburg (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | 1. FC Union Berlin | SV 07 Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.