Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:30 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FSV Mainz 0530%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen45%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FSV Mainz 05
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Hamburger SV (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at VfB 1921 Krieschow (A)9-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v RB Leipzig (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v NK Celje (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Aug 29 · at SV 07 Elversberg (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.