Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:30 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FSV Mainz 0548%48%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FSV Mainz 05
WinDrawWin
- Sep 6 · at Hamburger SV (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at VfB 1921 Krieschow (A)9-0
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-4
- Aug 29 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)3-3
- Aug 21 · at SC St Tönis 11/20 (A)11-0
- May 16 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- May 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 90% |
| Both teams scored | — | 90% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.