Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 29 · 13:30 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Likeliest: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win · 53%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FSV Mainz 0553%57%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
SC Paderborn 0723%19%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 81% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 75% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FSV Mainz 05
Win
- Aug 23 · at VfB 1921 Krieschow (A)9-0
SC Paderborn 07
DrawWin
- Aug 23 · at 1.FC Phönix Lübeck (A)4-2
- May 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1