Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:30 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen
Likeliest: 1. FSV Mainz 05 win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
1. FSV Mainz 0558%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
SV Werder Bremen20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
1. FSV Mainz 05
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at FC Schalke 04 (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · at Borussia M'gladbach (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Hamburger SV (A)5-0
SV Werder Bremen
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)2-2
- Oct 9 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Köln (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.