3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Aalesund FK II vs Byasen Toppfotball
Likeliest: Aalesund FK II win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 25%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aalesund FK II42%25%+17
OursMarket
Draw28%18%+10
OursMarket
Byasen Toppfotball30%57%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 77% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 43% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 75% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 31% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aalesund FK II
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 12 · at Melhus (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v NTNUI (H)1-3
- Sep 25 · v Rosenborg BK II (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Orkla (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Spjelkavik (H)3-2
Byasen Toppfotball
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Nardo (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at FK Kvik (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Orkla (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Herd (H)6-1
- Sep 13 · at Ranheim 2 (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Aalesund FK II | Byasen Toppfotball |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.