3rd Division, Group 2 (Norway) · Wed, Oct 21 · 14:00 · Aalesund FK II vs Nardo
Likeliest: Nardo win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aalesund FK II27%——
OursMarket
Draw18%——
OursMarket
Nardo56%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 79% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 2.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aalesund FK II
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v Byasen Toppfotball (H)3-3
- Oct 12 · at Melhus (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v NTNUI (H)1-3
- Sep 25 · v Rosenborg BK II (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Orkla (A)2-2
Nardo
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Herd (H)11-0
- Oct 10 · at Byasen Toppfotball (A)3-1
- Oct 3 · v Strindheim (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at NTNUI (A)5-2
- Sep 21 · v Ranheim 2 (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Aalesund FK II | Nardo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.