Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Aalesunds FK vs Sarpsborg 08
Likeliest: Sarpsborg 08 win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aalesunds FK36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Sarpsborg 0838%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aalesunds FK
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Molde FK (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Førde (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v IK Start (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Viking FK (A)1-2
Sarpsborg 08
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 30 · at Follo (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v KFUM Oslo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Aalesunds FK | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.