Oddset Pokalen (Denmark) · Thu, Oct 29 · 12:30 · Aarhus Fremad vs FC København
Likeliest: FC København win · 83%
Likely scores: 0–2 16% · 0–1 13% · 1–2 9%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aarhus Fremad4%7%−3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
FC København83%78%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 96% | 93% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 5% | 8% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aarhus Fremad
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 24 · at Vejle (A)0-0
- Oct 16 · v Esbjerg (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at AB (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Hørsholm-Usserød IK (A)0-0
FC København
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 26 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-1
- Oct 22 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)2-2
- Oct 18 · v AGF (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Sporting Braga (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Midtjylland (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Aarhus Fremad | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.