Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · Aarhus Fremad vs Hvidovre
Likeliest: Hvidovre win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aarhus Fremad35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Hvidovre37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aarhus Fremad
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 16 · at Hørsholm-Usserød IK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Kolding IF (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Fredericia (A)0-0
Hvidovre
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v AaB (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Hobro (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Fredericia (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at AB (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at HB Køge (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Aarhus Fremad | Hvidovre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.