Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:00 · Aarhus Fremad vs Kolding IF
Likeliest: Aarhus Fremad win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 38%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aarhus Fremad49%38%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Kolding IF25%34%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 66% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 62% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 52% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aarhus Fremad
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 30 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Fredericia (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Hillerød (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v HB Køge (H)3-1
- Jul 31 · v AaB (H)1-2
Kolding IF
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v AB (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at HB Køge (A)2-2
- Aug 14 · v Vejle (H)2-3
- Aug 9 · at AaB (A)1-1
- Aug 1 · v Hvidovre (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Aarhus Fremad | Kolding IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.