Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:00 · AB vs Aarhus Fremad
Likeliest: AB win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AB44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Aarhus Fremad30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AB
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Esbjerg (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Hillerød (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v AaB (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Kolding IF (A)1-2
Aarhus Fremad
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Hørsholm-Usserød IK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Kolding IF (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Vejle (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | AB | Aarhus Fremad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.