Oddset Pokalen (Denmark) · Tue, Oct 27 · 18:30 · AB vs Brøndby IF
Likeliest: Brøndby IF win · 61%
Likely scores: 1–2 11% · 1–1 11% · 0–1 10%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AB15%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Brøndby IF61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AB
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 24 · v Kolding IF (H)1-0
- Oct 16 · at HB Køge (A)3-2
- Oct 9 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Esbjerg (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
Brøndby IF
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 23 · at Randers FC (A)3-1
- Oct 18 · at Odense Boldklub (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Lyngby (H)5-2
- Sep 20 · v FC København (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Vejle (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | AB | Brøndby IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.