Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · AB vs Kolding IF
Likeliest: AB win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AB40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kolding IF33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AB
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 16 · at HB Køge (A)3-2
- Oct 9 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Esbjerg (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Hillerød (A)0-1
Kolding IF
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Hobro (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Fredericia (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | AB | Kolding IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.