USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:00 · AC Boise vs AV Alta FC
Likeliest: AC Boise win · 67%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Boise67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
AV Alta FC14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 65% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Boise
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)1-0
- Sep 27 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Spokane Velocity FC (A)2-2
- Sep 17 · v Charlotte Independence (H)1-1
AV Alta FC
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Westchester SC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Forward Madison FC (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Hearts of Pine (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v One Knoxville SC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | AC Boise | AV Alta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-0-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.