Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:00 · AC Horsens vs AGF
Likeliest: AGF win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Horsens21%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
AGF52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Horsens
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 16 · at Naesby (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Viborg FF (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Lyngby (H)2-1
AGF
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 16 · at BK Skjold (A)6-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Silkeborg IF (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · v FC Midtjylland (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Randers FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | AC Horsens | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.