Superliga (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · AC Horsens vs Randers FC
Likeliest: Randers FC win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Horsens31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+4
OursMarket
Randers FC39%39%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Horsens
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Silkeborg IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v AGF (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Naesby (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · at FC København (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)5-2
Randers FC
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Viborg FF (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)2-4
- Sep 16 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Brøndby IF (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | AC Horsens | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.