Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:00 · AC Horsens vs Sønderjyske Fodbold
Likeliest: AC Horsens win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Horsens38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Sønderjyske Fodbold34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Horsens
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · v Randers FC (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Silkeborg IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v AGF (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Naesby (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · at FC København (A)0-2
Sønderjyske Fodbold
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Silkeborg IF (H)4-0
- Oct 12 · at AGF (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Randers FC (H)4-2
- Sep 16 · at AB (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Lyngby (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | AC Horsens | Sønderjyske Fodbold |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.