Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 10 · 18:45 · AC Milan vs Atalanta
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan41%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Atalanta30%27%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 52% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 56% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 62% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- May 3 · at Sassuolo (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Apr 11 · v Udinese (H)0-3
- Apr 6 · at Napoli (A)0-1
Atalanta
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- May 2 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Apr 27 · at Cagliari (A)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Roma (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Juventus (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.