Europa League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · AC Milan vs Benfica
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan44%45%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Benfica27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Torino (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
Benfica
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · v Gil Vicente (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · at Moreirense (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Marítimo (A)3-0
- Aug 31 · v Estoril Praia (H)2-1
- Aug 27 · at AGF (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.