Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:45 · AC Milan vs Cagliari
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 51%
A 23% away win. The market says 9%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan51%74%−22
OursMarket
Draw26%17%+8
OursMarket
Cagliari23%9%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 91% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 26% | +22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 83% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 89% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
WinDrawLossLossWin
- May 17 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Atalanta (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Sassuolo (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
Cagliari
LossWinDrawLossWin
- May 17 · v Torino (H)2-1
- May 9 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- May 3 · at Bologna (A)0-0
- Apr 27 · v Atalanta (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · at Inter (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.