Serie A (Italy) · Thu, Jan 8 · 19:45 · AC Milan vs Genoa
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 57%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 40%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan57%64%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Genoa19%12%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 44% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 40% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 88% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 36% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 84% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 2 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Dec 28 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
- Dec 14 · v Sassuolo (H)2-2
- Dec 8 · at Torino (A)3-2
- Dec 4 · at Lazio (A)0-1
Genoa
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Jan 3 · v Pisa (H)1-1
- Dec 29 · at Roma (A)1-3
- Dec 21 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Dec 8 · at Udinese (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.