Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 26 · 18:45 · AC Milan vs Juventus
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 33%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan38%33%+5
OursMarket
Draw29%30%−2
OursMarket
Juventus33%37%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 54% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 47% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
LossWinLossLossWin
- Apr 19 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Apr 11 · v Udinese (H)0-3
- Apr 6 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Torino (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Lazio (A)0-1
Juventus
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 19 · v Bologna (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Mar 14 · at Udinese (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.