Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 18 · 19:45 · AC Milan vs Lecce
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 60%
We make it 53% for both teams to score. The market says 39%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan60%74%−14
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+6
OursMarket
Lecce16%8%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 39% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 92% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 26% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 90% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Jan 15 · at Como (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Jan 8 · v Genoa (H)1-1
- Jan 2 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Dec 28 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
Lecce
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 14 · at Inter (A)0-1
- Jan 11 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Jan 6 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Como (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.