Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:00 · AC Milan vs Torino
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 59%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan59%69%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Torino20%11%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 89% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 31% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 86% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 15 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Inter (H)1-0
- Mar 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Feb 18 · v Como (H)1-1
Torino
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 13 · v Parma (H)4-1
- Mar 6 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Genoa (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Bologna (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.