Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 11 · 16:00 · AC Milan vs Udinese
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 49%
A 24% away win. The market says 13%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan49%66%−17
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+6
OursMarket
Udinese24%13%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 52% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 87% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 34% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 84% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 6 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Torino (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Inter (H)1-0
- Mar 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
Udinese
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 6 · v Como (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Mar 7 · at Atalanta (A)2-2
- Mar 2 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.