Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:45 · AC Milan vs Venezia
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 52%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Milan52%69%−18
OursMarket
Draw26%20%+6
OursMarket
Venezia23%11%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 52% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 89% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 31% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 87% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Milan
LossLossWinLossWin
- Aug 23 · at Torino (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Atalanta (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Sassuolo (A)0-2
Venezia
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 23 · v Lecce (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Modena (H)3-2
- May 8 · v Palermo (H)2-0
- May 1 · at Spezia (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Empoli (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | AC Milan | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.