Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 16:00 · AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
Likeliest: Inter Turku win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Oulu19%22%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Inter Turku52%51%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Oulu
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v IF Gnistan (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at VPS (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v SJK (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at FF Jaro (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · v Inter Turku (H)2-3
Inter Turku
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 14 · v VPS (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at HJK (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v KuPS (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at FC København (A)1-4
- Aug 23 · at TPS (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | AC Oulu | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.